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Mokslo publikacijos
2020-08-31

Financial Sustainability Evaluation and Forecasting Using the Markov Chain: The Case of the Wine Business

Abstract

This paper proposes a framework for assessing the financial sustainability of a wine producing company. The probabilistic approach is used to model the expected changes in the financial situation of an enterprise based on the historical trends. The case of an enterprise in Ukraine is considered as an illustration. The Markov chain is adopted for the forecasting exercise. Using the Markov chain framework allows one to predict the probability of financial security change for several periods ahead. The forecast relies on the transition probabilities obtained by exploiting the historical data. The proposed framework is implemented by construction of the financial security level transition matrices for three scenarios (optimistic, baseline and pessimistic). The case study of a Ukrainian wine producing company is considered. The possibilities for applying the proposed method in establishing anti-crisis financial strategy are discussed. The research shows how forecasting the financial security level of a company can serve in anti-crisis financial potential buildup.

 

Keywords: financial  security; Markov chains; wine sector; forecasting; transition matrix

 

 

Rekova , N.; Telnova, H.; Kachur, O.; Golubkova, I.; Baležentis, T.; Streimikiene, D. 2020. Financial Sustainability Evaluation and Forecasting Using the Markov Chain: The Case of the Wine Busines. Sustainability. Vol. 12, Issue 15, 6150; EISSN 2071-1050; doi: 10.3390/su12156150; [AGORA (FAO)external link; AGRIS - Agricultural Sciences and Technology (FAO)external link; Animal Science Database (CABI)external link; CAB Abstracts (CABI)external link; Chemical Abstracts (ACS)external link; Current Contents - Agriculture, Biology & Environmental Sciences (Clarivate Analytics)external link; Current Contents - Social & Behavioral Sciences (Clarivate Analytics)external link; DOAJ - Directory of Open Access Journalsexternal link; EconPapers (RePEc)external link; FSTA - Food Science and Technology Abstracts (IFIS)external link; Genamics JournalSeekexternal link; GeoBase (Elsevier)external link; Global Health (CABI)external link; HINARI (WHO)external link; IDEAS (RePEc)external link; Inspec (IET)external link; Journal Citation Reports / Science Edition (Clarivate Analytics)external link; Journal Citation Reports / Social Science Edition (Clarivate Analytics)external link; Norwegian Register for Scientific Journals, Series and Publishers (NSD)external link; RePEcexternal link; Review of Agricultural Entomology (CABI)external link; Science Citation Index Expanded - Web of Science (Clarivate Analytics)external link; Scopus (Elsevier)external link; Social Sciences Citation Index - Web of Science (Clarivate Analytics)external link; Web of Science (Clarivate Analytics)].

 

 




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